Valuation and Performance Analysis for Security and Surveillance Industry of Taiwan: A Case Study of GeoVision Corporation

[[abstract]]台灣安全監控產業之企業評價與經營績效分析－以奇偶公司為例 摘 要 本研究針對台灣安全監控產業之發展現況與趨勢詳細分析，同時也對龍頭廠商奇偶及陞泰公司經由P/E本益比法、EVA經濟利潤法 、DCF現金流量折現法等之評價模式進行企業評價，期間以2007、2008、2009等二家公司三年的年報資料計算來評價2010年的股價。經營績效則以股東權益報酬率(ROE)其對企業績效的影響的變數、從股東權益報酬率然後由營業毛利率、負債比率、研究發展費用率、固定資產周轉率等變數來探討、衡量企業績效。研究結果發現： 一、企業評價方面之結論： 用 P/E、 EVA、DCF等三種評價模型評價奇偶公司2010年股價中，除了 奇偶公司的營收成長率為負數，不適用戈登模式。DCF現金流量折現法模型所評價的股價則屬高估範圍。其餘EPS本益比法、市場比較法、EVA經濟利潤法等三種所評價的股價均在正常合理的範圍。 二、企業經營績效方面之結論： 在迥歸分析中顯示，奇偶公司的營業毛利率及研究發展費用率對ROE股東權益報酬率有顯著的正相關。而負債比率及固定資產週轉率對ROE股東權益報酬率則為不顯著的負相關。[[abstract]]Valuation and Performance Analysis for Security and Surveillance Industry of Taiwan: A Case Study of GeoVision Corporation Abstract This study presents the current development and trend of Taiwan’s security and surveillance industry In addition it assessed business valuation of two leading manufacturers - GeoVision and AVTECH - under the following financial indicators including P/E EVA and DCF Annual data of two companies between 2007 and 2009 were used to analyze and the datum of both in 2010 was simulated to evaluate the stock price Business performance was then analyzed through following variables including return on equity (ROE) operating margin debt ratio research and development (R&D) expense ratio fixed asset turnover to measure the enterprises’ performance The results showed that firstly business valuation of both companies using P/E EVA and DCF in 2010 was not suitable to apply for the Gorden Model The DCF method was an over-evaluation of the scope of the stock while EPS and EVA were in the normal and reasonable price range Secondly business performance applying regression analysis showed that the GeoVision of R&D costs and operating margin rate had significantly positive correlation with ROE On the other hand debt ratio and fixed asset turnover had insignificantly negative impact on RO