Study on Entrepreneurship Risk Information and Adjustment of Benefit Perception-An Experiment Test in Psychology Decision Theory

[[abstract]]在台灣經濟發展過程中，民間創業扮演了極為重要的角色，本論文之研究是為降低風險知覺所產生的偏差，以降低創業風險，增加創業成功機率以提高創業意願，希對台灣經濟出路有所助益。 本實驗研究採受測者內的設計，以高雄第一科大金融營運系碩專班的學生為對象，進行前測，據以修正問卷內容不足之處，再隨機選取32位具有創業投資經驗者，進行實驗，檢定投資者在作與創業有關的決策時，是否有心理決策理論及資訊整合理論所論及的現象發生。 本研究的實驗結果如下： 一、受測者在參考風險資訊作決策時，風險資訊的強弱以及報酬資訊對決策者之投資意願皆有顯著影響。 二、受測者作投資決策時，會受到事前機率大小的影響。 三、受測者參考資訊作投資決策時，不會考慮資訊來源的可靠性。 四、受測者參考資訊作投資決策時，並未考慮機率的樣本大小。 五、受測者參考資訊作投資決策時，會考慮事前機率的有無。 實驗三、四支持心理決策理論的論點，實驗二、五支持資訊整合理論的論點。本研究除了實驗五之外，都是以2*2受測者內進行研究設計，並未發現資訊整合理論所述，受測者間的設計是心理決策理論的偏誤來源。[[abstract]]During economic development of Taiwan in the past, entrepreneurs play an important role. The study is for bringing down the biases of risk perception to lessen the risk of carry out an enterprise by means of enhance the probability of success to raise the desire of starting a business. Hope this study has conducive to Taiwan economic. Subjects in the experiment were MBA students with full-time work experience attending National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology. The study employed a 2*2 within-subject design. The questionnaire was amended according to priori, and then randomly chose 32 students with entering into a new venture experience to conduct the experiment. The research tests whether there are any phenomenon existing which were discussed by Psychological Decision Theory and Information Integration Theory when the investors make decision for new venture. The findings of the experiment are as the follows: The subjects were affected by strong message when they refer to risk and return information for decision-making. The base rate affected subjects’ judgment; the sample size and the reliability of information have no effect. The subjects took the base rate offers or not into account. The study performs within-subjects design except for experiment five. The findings of experiment 3 and 4 support for psychological decision theory, the results of experiment 2 and 5 support for information integration theory, although information integration theory claims the biases produced by between-subjects design