A Study on the Risk of Overdue Loan in Taiwan,s Banking Industry

[[abstract]]因應金融國際化與自由化的潮流，政府開放16家新銀行設立，加上部份銀行陸續改制為商業銀行，使銀行業進入所謂的戰國時代，過度的競爭使銀行授信品質惡化，又因全球經濟成長趨緩、亞洲金融風暴、國內產業外移，使得台灣金融機構的逾放比率逐年增加，總體銀行的逾放比率在2003年底時更是攀升至 5 %。 新巴塞爾資本協定已於2004年6月定案，台灣預定將與國際同步在2006年底實施，新資本協定採用更具風險敏感度的風險管理制度，對於信用風險強調差異性的管理，將有助於台灣金融機構信用風險管理的提升。 本研究將銀行產業分成四群組並透過統計與迴歸分析，探討逾放比率對存放比、淨值報酬率影響因素之關聯性，進而提出參考性的建議。本研究有如下結果發現： 1.四個群組銀行的逾放風險由低至高依序為金控銀行、官股銀行、新銀行、傳統銀行。 2.官股銀行的群組中臺灣銀行的存放比、淨值報酬率可順利解釋逾放情形。在金控銀行中 國泰世華商業銀行、中國國際商業銀行也可以順利解釋逾放情形。同樣地，新銀行的群 組中有寶華商業銀行、陽信商業銀行也有相同結果。[[abstract]]This paper considers the trend of financial internationalization and liberalization, Taiwan?Ss government deregulated banks, which led to the establishment of 16 new banks, and some banks have reorganized as commercial banks. These two developments in combination heralded the so-called “Era of War” of the banking industry. Excessive competition has made the quality of bank loans worse. Moreover, the slowed global economic growth, Asia?Ss financial storms, and exodus of local industries have made the rates of overdue loans made by Taiwan?Ss financial institutes increase annually. In the end of 2001, the rate of overdue loans made by banks in total reached 8.16%. The New Basel Capital Accord (NBCA) was settled in June 2004. It is expected that this accord will take effect in Taiwan in the end of 2006, in step with the world. This NBCA will adopt a risk management system that is more sensitive to risks and emphasizes differential management of credit risks; this will help elevate the management of credit risks of bank industry in Taiwan. Banks in the sample are classified into four distinct groups and regression analysis. This research categorized local banks into four groups to investigate the correlation between the influencing factors of overdue loan vs. deposit-loan ratios and of net return rates, and then to offer suggestions for reference. We obtain the following results: 1. Overdue loan risk as sample, the rank of risk in four groups is holding banks, government-controlled banks, new banks, and traditional banks. 2. The overdue loan rate of Taiwan Bank can be explained by its deposit-loan rates and net return rates in the group of government-controlled banks. The Cathay United Bank and International Commercial Bank of China can also easily explain their overdue loan rates in the group of holding companies. And in the group of new banks, the Bowa Bank and Sunny Bank have same results