The Determinants of Financial Health of Taiwan’s Life Insurance Companies- The Application of Logistic Model

[[abstract]]台灣目前無足夠的破產案例可以直接對壽險公司的清償能力做研究，本研究首先運用群集分析中K組平均數法及兩階段分析法，以壽險公司的財務業務指標對壽險公司財務狀態分類，接著透過邏輯斯模型找出對人壽保險業者的財務狀態具有顯著影響之各種因素。實證結果發現，以K組平均數方法來分類，投資績效、邊際利潤、資產組合變動率與產品組合變動率對國內壽險公司的財務狀態呈顯著的負向關係；以兩階段法來分類，僅資產組合變動率對國內壽險公司的財務狀態呈顯著的負向關系。兩種群集分析方法下的邏輯斯模型，整體辨識率均在80％以上，顯示該模型對於國內壽險公司的財務狀態之檢測具有顯著效果。[[abstract]]The main purpose of this paper is to find the determinants of financial health of Taiwan’s life insurance companies,. We use K-means and Two-step cluster analysis to classify financial status of life insurance companies, then detect variables that have statistically significant impact on the financial health of the life insurance companies in Taiwan by running the Logistic model. The result indicates that by using the classification method of K-means, we find the factors that significantly negatively affect life insurers’ financial health are investment performance, operating margin, change in asset mix, and change in product mix. However, by using the classification method of Two-step, we find only the factor of change in asset mix demonstrates significantly negatively affect on life insurer’s financial health. We conclude that both of the Logistic regression models under these two kinds of classification methods have more than 80% accuracy on estimating financial health situation