Risk Assessment Model to Toxic Trailer Transportation — Case Study of Chung-Sun Highway

[[abstract]]目前有一百六十四種化學物質被我國環境保護署列管為毒性化學物質進行管理，這些毒性化學物質危害特性包括易燃、易爆、毒氣擴散等等。由於它們的運作工廠遍及台灣各處，公路運輸成為運送作業之主要模式。因此，這些毒性化學物質進行公路運輸時，因為運輸路線、載運物質數量及所具備的毒性等因素，而對運輸路段及其周圍民眾形成了不可忽視的風險。 本研究目的在於以量化方式探討毒性化學物質道路運輸風險，研究路段選定以中山高速公路全線為代表，並且以槽車裝運且運輸量大之氣態或液態 (揮發性高者) 毒性化學物質為研究對象。將中山高速公路適當劃分為若干區段，利用所劃分各路段之路段長度、交通流量、肇事次數、運輸車次及運輸事故發生嚴重洩漏可能性等資料，進行事故發生機率之估算。並根據洩漏物質之物性、化性、毒性、數量、氣候條件等資料，運用擴散模式模擬毒化物槽車於選定路段發生嚴重洩漏時所可能擴散範圍，配合地理資訊系統進行洩漏可能影響區域人口數之研究，以做為事故嚴重度。最後綜合以上資料，進行各路段運輸之風險值評估。 評估結果顯示，在所劃分之中山高速公路十一處路段中，以岡山至終點段的風險值為最高。由於本研究所列的因子皆為實際之統計數據，利用此方式所探討之風險值量化數據相當明確，對於造成影響之風險因子及其影響比重也能夠迅速瞭解。所得到之量化結果對風險項目之削減、預防措施之建立及緊急應變能力之提昇具有明確而實質之參考價值。[[abstract]]There are 146 chemicals listed as Toxic Substances by Environment Protection Agency for managing purpose. Most of them are transported by road and with property of flammable, explosive or can be dispersion as toxic gas. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of toxic substances to population when transported on road. The study is to evaluate transportation risk in a quantitative method. The Chung Sun highway is selected as the representative section, and the major gaseous or easily vaporized toxic substance liquid that is transported by tankcar are selected as study objects. Firstly, to divide the Chung Sun highway into 11 subsections. Then to calculate each subsection’s accident rate, transportation frequency and serious leakage probability as accident frequency. Also to utilize dispersion model coordinate with geographic information system to estimate its dispersion range and the affected population based on study objects’ physical, chemical, toxic properties and quantity, this can thought as accident severity. Finally, Combine the accident frequency and severity data, the risk data of study object on the each subsection can be found. From the study, the risk in subsection from GuangShang to endpoint in the Chung Shun highway is the highest. The risk value is quantification, clearly and the weighting of factors in risk also can be easily understood. All these data can apply to the consideration of risk mitigation, establishment of risk prevention measures and the enhancement of contingency capability