The Analysis of Factors Affecting the Import, Export & Transited Container Throughputs in Taiwan

[[abstract]]由於國際間港口之競爭愈來愈激烈，而台灣為非常典型的海島型經濟國家，國內民生、工業之需求大都需倚靠海運來作為國際貿易之橋樑。因此，了解影響國內港口運量變動因素，將有助於改善與增進港口之營運成效。而過去有關港埠貨櫃運量變動因素之研究中，多針對進、出口與轉口貨櫃三者個別因素來探討，三者之間的分析是相互獨立的。然實務上三者間卻存在相互聯動之關係。從國際貿易的觀點來看，在進、出口方面其多屬經濟層面之影響因素，而轉口貨櫃方面則主要受到兩股力量所影響：一為港埠基本貨源進、出口貨櫃量之影響，另一股影響力量則為港埠本身效率高低之影響。 本研究主要目的，是希望透過研究中所建構國內進、出、轉口貨櫃量影響因素的架構模式，來了解影響貨櫃量之因素為何？之後，在計量方法上，本研究分別針對研究對象，包括高雄港、基隆港以及兩港加總作為整體模式，分別利用單一迴歸與聯立迴歸方程式進行實證分析。結果顯示，國內之進出口貨櫃量由於多為了滿足國內外有關工業與民生方面之需求，故其數量之變動仍主要由國內外之經濟因素所主導。而影響轉口貨櫃量之兩股力量在此則多為顯著之情況，包括國內進出口貿易面與港埠效率面之影響因素。也驗證了研究中所提出之假設，國內海運進、出口以及轉口貨櫃量之間並非相互獨立，其間是存在相互聯動之關係。[[abstract]]Due to the “island-typed” economy, the economic performance in Taiwan, especially in the past three decades has been heavily dependent on its trades with other countries. Thus, marine transportation is still the key mode for the outbound and/or inbound cargos in Taiwan. With the tendency of containerization in international marine market and the enlargement of containership, the port authorities in Taiwan have suffered tremendous impacts on their performance. In practice, the port authorities have been pressured to keep their standings in the ranking of container throughputs around the world ports even though the market environments have been shifted to be more competitive under the hub-and-spoke route arrangements. Obviously, to know what factors will affect the container throughputs has become the most concerned issue in the study of port management. This study has focused on investigating the real factors that have significant influences on the import, export and transited container throughputs for the two largest ports, Kaohsuing and Keelung in Taiwan. In this research, at first, three single equations that are specified to demonstrate the patterns for import, export and transited container throughput in the two ports will be created respectively. After that, a simultaneous equation model that combines the three single equations will be borrowed to allow for the correlation among the single equation. The findings in this study as follow: 1. The import and export container throughputs reveal that the needs of industrial production and people consumption are the key factors to contribute more container throughputs for Taiwan’s ports. 2. The volume of import and export container throughputs and the performance of port operational efficiency have played the key roles on attracting more transited container throughputs for the two ports. Finally, the findings also provide some reliable evidence to support the initial idea in this study: the different kinds of container throughput should be specified interdependently but not dependently