Operating Revenue Risk Sharing Analysis of Private Investment in Harbor Distribution Center Infrastructure Project

[[abstract]]民間參與公共建設（PPI, Private Participating Infrastructure或PF, Private Financing）為當前國際與國內運輸政策發展方向，自我國加入WTO後，即停徵商港建設費改收商港服務費，此使港口建設基金減少，因此，未來港埠設施之興建亦將漸趨採行此方式實施。隨著世界跨國性經貿活動經濟之發展，港埠物流中心具降低物流運輸成本之功能，成為貨物倉儲、加工及轉運之重鎮，未來規劃兩岸三通及自由貿易港區推動方案，將使港埠物流中心之設置益形重要。 民間投資參與公共建設能否成功，風險管理為重要因素，風險分攤為風險控制方法之一，影響PPI成功甚鉅，對於提供合理公平之良好投資環境頗為重要且有其法源上依據，惟具體方式尚無明確規範。本研究藉由營運量保證門檻值訂定，提出民間依促參法辦理參與建設港埠物流中心時，營收風險衡量及分攤之模式。本研究依風險管理程序之架構，以政府之角度、民間之觀點，依風險分攤之能力及公平原則，並依法規之預算限制之規定，應用數學規劃法構建最佳化模式。在就計劃案財務分析所需之相關參數設定及進行營運成本收入分析後，計算其自償能力及政府預算上限，另以其他運量預測報告為基礎，經調整及換算後，應用運量分佈統計校估推估預測年之運量分佈，將上述相關參數套入最佳化模式中，以求解政府與民間之營收風險分攤比例與最佳營運量保證門檻值之關係。 經以高雄港港埠物流中心為例進行實證研究，由分析結果發現：營運量保證門檻值隨政府分攤比例增加而增加。若以政府預算限制向下調整，發現在相同的運量保證下，政府與民間之間會有不同營收風險分擔比例的組合，此分擔比例的組合可由政府及民間進行協商來確定後，訂於投資契約中。而此方式可提供未來政府施政之政策參考。[[abstract]]Private Participating Infrastructure or Private Financing is the direction for the development of international and domestic transportation policies. After Taiwan entered the WTO, the harbor construction dues have been substituted by the port dues and this has caused a decrease in the harbor construction fund. Therefore, PPI would be gradually adopted for the construction of harbor facilities in the future. With the booming of transnational trade and economic activities, the harbor distribution center would become a hub of warehousing, processing and transshipment with its advantage of lower transportation cost. The future cross-strait direct links and implementation of the free port area project would further highlight the importance of the harbor distribution center. Risk management is an important factor leading to the success of PPI. Risk sharing, which contributes greatly to the success of PPI, is a way to control risk and a legitimate strategy for a reasonable and fair investment environment. However, relevant regulations on risk sharing are yet to stipulate. This study offers the formula of calculating management risk and the mode of risk sharing for PPI in the harbor distribution center. This study identifies the risk and the source of risk causing changes in operation needs based on the structure of risk management procedures. This study also designs the optimal mode by using the mathematical programming method and taking the consideration of the capability of risk sharing, the principle of fairness and the regulation on constraint of budget from the perspectives of both the government and the private sector. In addition, this study calculates the capability of self-liquidating ratio and the maximum of government budget by setting the relevant parameters needed for the financing proposal and analyzing the operation cost and revenue. This study also predicts the annual breakdown of ernment and the private sector and the threshold figure guaranteeing the most by referencing other throughput prediction reports with some conversion and calibration. The adoption of the abovementioned parameters into the optimal model will reflect the relationship between the ratio of risk sharing between the government and the private sector and the threshold figure guaranteeing the most throughput. This case study is based on the Kaohsiung Habor distribution center. It finds that the threshold figure guaranteeing the most throughput rises as the proportion of government sharing increases. It also finds that with the same guaranteed hroughput, the ratio of risk sharing between the government and the private sector varies when the government lowers the budget constraint. The ratio can be negotiated between the government and the private sector and specified in the investment contract. This mode serves as a good reference for future government policy-making