Risk Analysis Model for Inventory Control of Postponement Strategies-- Example of Computer OEM Industries in Taiwan

[[abstract]]當前資訊產業為因應客製化與相關物流不確定性因素的課題，資訊產業一般採行的策略是將其成品最後客製化的作業延遲到顧客需求確定之後才開始執行。且大量客製化趨勢下，企業為在競爭激烈的環境下求生存，必須提供符合顧客需求的成品或服務，採行延遲策略也可說是提昇競爭力優勢的良方之一。 本研究的主要內容是以關鍵零組件在需求、供給及跌價不確定性下的觀點下，達到降低存貨成本及延遲時間風險兩目標，以建立延遲策略存貨風險模式，同時以桌上型電腦產業為例，進而提供國內桌上型電腦業者在面對全球運籌模式下，推行延遲策略的參考。 經由模式建構，本研究進行數值及敏感度分析發現，存貨平均延遲時間風險和成本風險會呈現抵換關係，當供給可靠度增加及需求變動性減小，存貨時間和成本風險隨之減少，且供給可靠度對存貨風險敏感度較需求變動性大，並歸結出利用供給可靠度的增加和目標存貨水準和再訂購存貨水準調整，可減少需求變動所造成的存貨風險值影響。[[abstract]]Postponement strategies indicate that some of the activities in the supply chain are postponed until customer orders are received. Companies that utilize postponement strategies may postpone distribution of finished goods (termed as time and place postponements) or/and product assembly or manufacturing processes (termed as form postponements), through which enterprises may reduce transport, inventory carrying and obsolescence costs and increase customers’ responsiveness (Pagh, et al., 1998; Zinn, et al., 1998). Since postponement strategies could coincide with the driving force changes of international business, such as globalization, demanding customers and technological utilizations, a rapid increasing number of companies are reconfiguring their supply chain for postponements (Van Hoek, et al., 1998). Nonetheless, subject to short timeframe, dispersed geography and impending inventory, postponement performances are sensitive to a broad range of internal and external uncertainties, such as, market demand, vendors’ supply, distribution reliability (e.g. border-crossing disruption following 911 terrorism attack), product/component devaluation, and market competitiveness (Kingsman, et al., 1996). Issues on risks are thus essential for corporations to justify their postponement strategies. But a systematic risk analysis of postponement practices has yet been seen. Furthermore, despite the potential attractiveness of postponement strategies, little is known about the practical implementation of such strategies so far (Van Hoek, et al., 1998). As a consequence, this study aims to investigate the execution of postponement strategies of Taiwanese computer Original Equipment Manufacturing (OEM) industry that produced more than one fourth of global computer products, and to construct a generic quantitative risk analysis model to justify a favored component inventory and reorder levels to counteract the associated uncertainties. The computer software @RISK is utilized as a simulation tool