The Study on Total Amount of Property-Liability Insurance Guaranty Fund -The Application of Dynamic Cash Flow

[[abstract]]在金融服務業整合的趨勢潮流下，我國產險業正面臨激烈競爭與衝擊，在此環境下將使保險公司喪失清償能力的機率大增。雖然在我國設置有財產保險安定基金的機制，但截至2000年止累計基金總額為二十億元，以國外安定基金施行的經驗，其最大的問題是基金總額不足的情況，因此，若安定基金總額不足以因應危機公司，則此機制將無法發揮應有的作用。 根據許多研究與報導指出，一般公司面臨經營困境，其主要原因為週轉不靈，因此安定基金的首要條件應是有足夠的資金來挹注困難公司，由於利用歷史性的財務資料進行靜態分析無法充分預測隨時可能發生的現金流量不平衡現象， 因此要預測公司須挹注的資金額度，從現金流量缺口的觀點分析應較適當。 據此，本研究擬以產險公司現金流量的角度輔以蒙地卡羅模擬法，模擬出產險公司現金流量的情形，並進一步推導出各公司現金缺口額度的機率分配以計算合理之安定基金總額。一方面供產險公司作為資金運用與資產負債管理的決策依據，另一方面用以衡量財產保險安定基金的適足性，使其機制能充分發揮功效。 而根據本研究結果，財產保險安定基金的最大總額為約為一百一十五億元，財產保險安定基金的最適總額約為五十一億元，目前財產保險安定基金徵收總額僅二十億元，因此應繼續課徵以使安定基金之機制更趨健全，而課徵時也可根據不同公司風險程度之高低而調整徵收費率，以求公平化與防範道德危險之發生。[[abstract]]Under the trend that financial service industry to be integrated, the Property-Liability Insurance companies in Taiwan are facing server competition and impact. The probability for companies losing their solvency would increase under this kind of environment. Taiwan has Property-Liability（P&L） Insurance Guaranty Fund device for P&L insurance companies, however, by year 2000, the accumulated total amount of fund is NT$ 2 billion dollars. According to the guaranty fund experiences from overseas countries, the biggest problem they faced is the total amount of the fund is not enough. Due to this reason we could know, if the total amount of guaranty fund is not enough for risky companies, the device would lose its function. Many studies and reports indicate the main reason why common companies suffer form operation difficulties is because they have not enough money to meet the end. So the priority of guaranty fund is having enough capital to support companies in difficulties. Using historical financial information to conduct static analysis cannot adequately predict the probable unbalanced cash flow that might happen anytime, the proper way to predict the needed capital amount of a company is to analyze cash flow gap. Based on the above mentioned idea, this study uses the cash flow of P&L insurance companies with Monte Carlo Simulation to simulate the cash flow situation of P&L insurance companies, and future deduct the distribution of each company’s cash gap amount, calculating the optimal total amount of guaranty fund. The calculated total amount of guaranty fund could be the gist of decision-making when P&L insurance companies manage their capital and liability, and also, it could be sued to measure the adequacy of P&L Insurance Guaranty Fund, making guaranty fund device affective. This study calculates the maximum sum of P&L Insurance Guaranty Fund is around NT$ 11.5 billion dollars, and the most adequate sum is about NT$ 5.1 billion dollars. So far in Taiwan, the sum of P&L Insurance Guaranty Fund is only NT $ 2 billion dollars, so P&L Insurance Guaranty Fund should continue assessing capital from insurance companies to develop a more solid guaranty fund device. The P&L Insurance Guaranty Fund should also adjust the assess rate according to different risk levels in different companies for fair play and preventing the occurrence of moral hazard