An interactive analysis between housing price and macroeconomic factors:the case of pre-sale and exist housing market

[[abstract]]自2001年以來，政府為了振興房地產而實施的相關配套措施，加上市場游資過多、消費者物價指數攀升之下，而衍生出房價高漲的現象。本文探討消費者物價指數、貨幣供給額、基本放款利率、失業率及加權股價指數等總體經濟因素對於預售屋及成屋價格之影響。分別以2001年第1季至2009年第2季的國泰房價指數、信義房價指數作為研究標的。實證結果發現預售屋及成屋價格與總體經濟變數間存在著長期穩定的均衡關係。其次、預售屋價格在均衡誤差不為零時，有消弭均衡誤差之調整能力，成屋價格則不具此能力；前期的消費者物價指數會影響當期的預售屋價格，而當期的成屋價格則會受到前期的基本放款利率高低的影響。第三、貨幣供給額對預售屋及成屋價格存在單向的因果關係。此外，預售屋及成屋價格與總體經濟因素間的因果關係存在差異性。失業率與預售屋價格存在雙向回饋關係；預售屋價格具有領先消費者物價指數、消費者物價指數則具有領先成屋價格的因果關係。具體而言，政府可藉由貨幣政策及物價政策來維持房地產市場穩定，而政府的貨幣及物價政策動向，是購屋者在決定購買時的重要參考因素。[[abstract]]Since 2001 the Government has implemented in order to revitalize the real estate related supporting measures coupled with too much hot money the consumer price index rose under which spawned the phenomenon of rising prices This paper discusses the consumer price index money supply the basic lending rate unemployment rate and the weighted stock price index and the macroeconomic factors housing and homes for sale prices of the impact Respectively in 2001 Q1 to 2009 Q2 Cathay price index Lutheran Home Price Index as a research subject Empirical results showed that new home sales and existing home prices and macroeconomic variables there exist long-term stable equilibrium relationship Second the pre-sale house prices in the equilibrium error is not zero there is the ability to adjust to eliminate balance of errors into the housing price is not with this capability; preliminary consumer price index would affect the current pre-sale house prices while the current period pre-existing home prices will be subject to the basic lending rate level impact Third the money supply to the sale of public housing and home prices have a one-way causal relationship exists In addition the sale of public housing and into the housing prices and macroeconomic factors the causal relationship between the existence of differences Unemployment rate and the pre-existence of two-way feedback relationship between housing prices; pre-sale house prices are leading the consumer price index consumer price index has the lead into the causal relationship between housing prices Specifically the Government may by currency and price policy to maintain the real estate market is stable while the Government's policy trend is to homebuyers in the decision to purchase an important reference facto