An Analysis of the Impact of Taiwan High Speed Rail on Intercity Transportation Market and the Safety Evaluation

[[abstract]]過去數十年間，日本、西班牙、德國、法國等國家之城際運輸工具均因為高速鐵路的營運而受到衝擊，而兼具「高運能、快速與準點」等特色的台灣高鐵已於2007年1月開始營運，於交通部統計月報中亦指出，於高鐵試營運階段中，既有運具之旅客運輸需求均產生大幅的變動，其中國內航空較去年同期（4月）減少21.46%，台鐵則較去年同期（4月）減少2.49%。由此可知，不論在那個國家，高速鐵路的營運均對當地城際運具產生極大的影響。此外，運具的行車安全對旅運者來說一直是很重要的考量因素，但台灣高鐵在試營運階段，在安全上出現了許多的問題，受到各界的質疑，間接影響旅運者的搭乘意願。 因此，本研究乃欲利用敘述性偏好來分析當高速鐵路營運後，對於旅運者的運具選擇行為的影響，並進一步利用敏感度分析來探討當運輸業者所提供的服務變動時，對於各運具需求的影響。此外，於研究中亦利用條件評估法來衡量不同既有運具使用者對於高鐵安全改善價值的認知及平均願意支付價格。 實證結果指出：（1）在長程運輸下，高鐵營運後使航空需求移轉61.94%，台鐵自強號需求移轉51%與國道客運巴士需求移轉26.41%；（2）在短程運輸下，台鐵自強號與國道客運的需求因高速鐵路的營運分別移轉55.77%與45.35%；（3）在敏感度分析中發現旅客對於票價的變動最為敏感，因此業者可透過票價的調降來吸引更多的旅客；（4）在安全改善之願付價格上，以航空旅客之願付價格最高，其次為巴士與台鐵旅客；（5）高鐵不僅能夠提供民眾快速的運輸服務，亦存在著因安全改善而產生的效益。[[abstract]]In the past few decades, the high speed rail system’s impact on the intercity transportation modes in Japan, Spain, German, French was very obvious. Taiwan High Speed Rail operated since Jan. 2007. According to the monthly report of Ministry of Transportation and Communication, during the trial running stage, the demand for the existing intercity transportation modes are changed drasmatically, especially the air transportation. Moreover, the safety of transportation is a major issue for passengers. However, the Taiwan High Speed Rail（THSR） has many safety concerns perceived by paseengers during the trail running stage, and it could decrease passengers’ intention to accept this transportation mode. Therefore, this study will adopt the Stated Preference method to estimate the utility function first and then use the Sensitivity Analysis to analyze the mode choice behavior of passengers when the Taiwan High Speed Rail or other operators changed their transportation services. And, this study also adopts the Contingent Valuation Method（CVM） to evaluate the travelers’ will to pay for the safety improvement of Taiwan High Speed Rail . The empirical results are as follows. Firstly, for the long-distance travel, 61.94% of air transportation, 51% of Taiwan Railway Administration（TRA）and 26.41% of motor transport will shift to Taiwan High Speed Rail. Secondly, for the short-distance travel, the market share of TRA and motor transportation will shift 55.77% and 45.35% to THSR individually. Thirdly, the sensitivity analysis result indicated that passengers are more sensitive to the price change. Therefore, the operators can attract more passengers by cutting price. Fourthly, through evaluating the willing to pay, the aviation passengers’ will to pay is the highest, and then are the passengers taking the bus and TRA. This empirical results provide some suggestion for the policy makers in the government or other transportation authority