Discuss accumulation influence and risk environment about the economic policy to recycle food waste

[[abstract]]垃圾處理問題一直是地狹人稠的台灣所頭痛的環保問題，近年來環保意識高 漲，故如何將可回收之垃圾回收再利用，為執行機關所關注之議題。二○○三年 底，台北市率先將廚餘分為「堆肥廚餘」與「養猪廚餘」兩種，雖然立意良好， 但是農委會擔心以廚餘養猪容易引發傳染疾病，希望逐年減少用於養猪之廚餘 量。雖然廚餘養猪省下來部分飼料成本，但是一旦發生疫病傳染，對飼主與畜產 業，甚至是環境造成的傷害卻是更嚴重且深遠的。 本研究提供三種經濟性政策方法及強制性政策方法以達到減少廚餘養猪的目 的，經濟性政策方法分為增加家禽飼料投資、增加廚餘堆肥場投資、增加生質柴 油投資；強制性政策方法分為法律制定、發給執照、養猪戶自願行為。本研究主 要目的即提供一個實驗工具，運用系統動態學軟體Vensim_DSS 模擬在不同風險環 境下，例如疫情發生機率上升、油價上漲機率上升，考量時間及變數交互作用之 下，不同的政策對主要觀察變數所產生不同的影響。其中主要觀察變數為廚餘養 猪變化量；而影響則是改變不同政策變數下，模式中主要觀察變數的動態變化， 在基本模式或不同風險環境下，會因政策變數之改變及其他變數的累積影響，而 使主要觀察變數有不同的動態變化。本研究在廚餘養猪會造成口蹄疫發生的假設 下，定義動態假說為，在相關變數影響之下，使用強制性政策來減少廚餘養猪量 會造成反效果。強制性政策實施之初，廚餘養猪量可能可以有明顯下降效果，然 而對養猪戶而言，必須增加另外的飼料成本，如此經過時間累積之後，養猪戶為 了利潤平衡會偷偷使用廚餘養猪，造成廚餘養猪量不降反升的效果。 經由軟體政策模擬出之結果，除了證明動態假說成立，也發現經濟性政策在 基本模式及疫情發生機率上升情境下皆優於強制性政策，不會造成反效果情形發 生，同時也注意到油價上漲機率是影響主要觀察變數的重要外生變數，原因是油 價上漲機率升高使生質柴油利潤上升，可以讓廚餘養猪量下降，故也提醒決策者 在實施經濟性政策的同時，也必須考量到外在不可控制因素對廚餘養猪量的影 響。而動態假設的証明，也提醒決策者不應只一昧追求短期效應而強制減少廚餘 養猪量，以免因為長期累積造成反效果。[[abstract]]The problem about handling garbage which also cause environmental protection problem now is troublesome because it is populous in Taiwan. As a result of the more environmental consciousness in recent years, how to reuse the recycling garbage is more important. The kitchen waste is the better reusable material and worth to recycle it, recycled from Taipei city during the end of 2003. The dispose of kitchen waste in Taiwan is to feed pigs now, but Council of Agriculture worry that kitchen waste to feed pigs will cause disease of livestock, such as foot-and-mouth disease. However, it still has economical attraction for the pig feeders because of reducing the cost of fodder. Also, the waste oil depart from kitchen waste can make bio-diesel oil making diesel engine work. This research is an experimental tool to see if the kitchen waste will decrease or not in different scenarios and policies. Different scenarios embrace likelihood of foot-and-mouth disease rise and likelihood of oil price rise to go up. Different policies embrace economical policy and mandatory policy. Using system dynamics software—Vensim_DSS to simulate what influence in economic or mandatory policy. Based on the results simulated by the model, consider the accumulation effect day by day, we can find that mandatory policy will make the side-effect in kitchen waste to feed pigs. In the beginning of making mandatory policy, the kitchen waste to feed pigs will decrease. However it will increase because other variables influence. This paper improve that economical policy is better than mandatory policy. After this simulation, it can help the decision makers understand that the economical policy will reduce kitchen waste to feed pigs effective, and likelihood of oil price rise to go up is the most important variables to affect kitchen waste to feed pigs