The Application of Survival Analysis on Merger and Acquisition Synergies Generated in Taiwan Companies

[[abstract]]過去研究著重在「併購宣告之異常報酬」、「企業併購成功的關鍵因素」及「企業併購的長期績效」，但對於從併購宣告日至真正產生綜效的時間軸，卻少有研究，故本研究以存活分析概念應用在「併購」的事件上，讓併購事件的成功關鍵因素與產生併購綜效的時間相連結，做為公司併購評估之參考指標。 本研究結果顯示，影響併購後綜效的產生最主要的構面是主併公司所擁有的資源，其次為併購前的績效，最後為併購的型態。此外，本研究以Cox迴歸模型預判依主併公司現有的資源下，對於新的併購案件是否會產生綜效；結果求得併購後第三年之基準存活率為72%，表示併購後三年僅有28%的公司會產生併購綜效，模型預估的準確度可達70 18%。[[abstract]]The vast majority of M&A studies focused on “cumulative abnormal returns after M&A announcement” “M&A key success factors” and “the long-term performance of M&A” but few studies focus on the timeline from merger to synergies generated In this study we apply “survival” concept on M&A event by linking M&A key success factors and the timing of synergies generated to become the indicator of M&A evaluation The results show that the most important dimension of post-acquisition performance is acquiring company’s resources followed by the performance of pre-acquisitions and the type of M&A In addition the study predicts the time of synergies generated by Cox regression model the 3rd year survival rate of post-acquisition is 72% indicate only 28% of M&A companies will create synergies The accuracy of this model estimates up to 70 18