Expansion of the Southern Variant of the Fire and Fuels Extension for the Forest Vegetation Simulator

This project specifically addressed AFP 2006-3, Task 3, by providing guidance for maintaining effective fire and non-fire fuels treatments, with the aim of supporting long-term fuels management. The overall goals of the project were to parameterize, expand, and improve the Southern Variant of the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) with the best data currently available, to identify data weaknesses and gaps that may require additional research to reduce the uncertainty of Southern FFE model predictions, and to determine a validation framework for the Southern FFE. A wide variety of fire and fuels data and expertise is necessary to parameterize a local/regional FFE. Some of the model inputs are derived research data, but many inputs must be acquired as educated estimates from local experts. This lack of validated data quality means that the model outputs contain a substantial amount of uncertainty. Forest land managers must justify their actions and management to an increasingly skeptical public, often in courts of law. Knowledge of model uncertainty is essential for defending the validity of model outputs and the forest/park management plans that they influence