We present new methods for short-term earthquake forecasting that employ space, time, and magnitude kernels to smooth seismicity. These methods are purely statistical and rely on very few assumptions about seismicity. In particular, we do not use Omori-Utsu law, and only one of our two new models assumes a Gutenberg-Richter law to model the magnitude distribution; the second model estimates the magnitude distribution nonparametrically with kernels. We employ adaptive kernels of variable bandwidths to estimate seismicity in space, time, and magnitude bins. To project rates over short time scales into the future, we simply assume persistence, that is, a constant rate over short time windows. The resulting forecasts from the two new kernel mod...
A standard approach to quantifying the seismic hazard is the relative intensity (RI) method. It is a...
We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Tur...
International audienceWe have developed time-independent forecasts for California assuming that smal...
We present new methods for time-independent earthquake forecasting that employ space-time kernels to...
International audienceWe present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes i...
We present rigorous tests of global short-term earthquake forecasts using Epidemic Type Aftershock S...
International audienceWe present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes o...
and days. We evaluate some published forecast models on these time scales, and suggest improvements ...
International audienceWe consider the problem of forecasting earthquakes on two different time scale...
We present estimates of future earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitu...
International audienceAs part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake foreca...
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) m...
The presence of strong aftershocks can increase the seismic hazard following a large earthquake and ...
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time an...
In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of several sta-tistical models, which are used...
A standard approach to quantifying the seismic hazard is the relative intensity (RI) method. It is a...
We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Tur...
International audienceWe have developed time-independent forecasts for California assuming that smal...
We present new methods for time-independent earthquake forecasting that employ space-time kernels to...
International audienceWe present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes i...
We present rigorous tests of global short-term earthquake forecasts using Epidemic Type Aftershock S...
International audienceWe present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes o...
and days. We evaluate some published forecast models on these time scales, and suggest improvements ...
International audienceWe consider the problem of forecasting earthquakes on two different time scale...
We present estimates of future earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitu...
International audienceAs part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake foreca...
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) m...
The presence of strong aftershocks can increase the seismic hazard following a large earthquake and ...
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time an...
In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of several sta-tistical models, which are used...
A standard approach to quantifying the seismic hazard is the relative intensity (RI) method. It is a...
We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Tur...
International audienceWe have developed time-independent forecasts for California assuming that smal...