Modelling and forecasting of marine fish landings in Kerala using multiple time series models

Marine fisheries is an important sector in India and contributes 1.2 percent to the nation's Gross Domestic Production. It earns a foreign exchange worth 41,500 million rupees. The current marine fi sh production in the country is 2.4 mill ion tonnes which is about 4 times the production in the early fifties. This accounts for a contribution of 3 percent of the world marine fish production and India is one among the top 10 fish producing countries. India has a coastline of 8,129 Kilometers. About 5 million people living in the coastal areas are engaged in fishing and other related activities for their livelihood. Fishing in marine fisheries sector is carried out by about 1.8 lakh nonmotorised traditional fishing crafts, 32,000 motorized traditional crafts and 47,000 mechanized vessels. Among the maritime states, Kerala has a prominent place with regard to marine fish production in the country which contributes to almost 25% of the total marine fish production though the total coast line covered by the state is only 590 Kms which is about one-tenth of the Indian coast line. The state has two major fishing harbours at Cochin and Sakthikulangara and about 220 landing centers distributed over 304 fishing villages. In the year 1996, total marine fish production from the state was 5.72 lakh tonnes which accounts for 23.62 % of the total marine fish production in the country. During the period 1987-96 Kerala accounted for an average landings of 5.45 lakh tonnes which is about 25.29 % of the average production in the country during this period. The marine fish production in the country, during this period, varied between 1.65 million tonnes (in 1987) and 2.42 million tonnes (in 1996) with an average of 2.16 million tonnes. The contribution from Kerala during this period ranged between 3.03 lakh tonnes (i n 1987) and 5.72 lakh tonnes ( in 1996). In this period the percentage contribution by the state towards marine fish production in the country was maximum in the year 1990 which is 30.94% and the minimum observed was 18.39% in the year 1987