The influence of public opinion polls on public opinion: The role of motivation and ability in the elaboration likelihood model.

The primary purpose of this study was to examine how public opinion polls influence individuals' attitudes regarding elections and issues in collective situations, and to specify the kinds of contingent conditions under which public opinion polls influence individuals' own opinions. This study investigates the influence of poll results on public opinion in two different contexts--election and non-election. This study takes a social psychological approach, and of particular interest to this study was the role of individuals' motivation and ability, as proposed in the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). To examine the effect process, a multifaceted research method was used. As the first part of the study, a secondary analysis was conducted with a field experiment data collected in the 1988 presidential election context. Detailed examinations using discriminant analysis indicated that the bandwagon effect was stronger than the underdog effect. Also, sub-group analysis results show that people with weak preferences for one candidate over another are likely to be more influenced by public opinion polls than people with strongly held political opinions. As the second part of the study, laboratory experiments were conducted. A total of 340 undergraduate students participated in the laboratory experiment. Subjects were randomly assigned to one of four conditions and received information about public opinion poll results which showed either one or the other position within each issue gaining more support. MANOVA, ANOVA and ANCOVA were conducted to analyze the laboratory experiment data. Among the most important findings emerged from the field and laboratory experiment is the role of individuals' motivation in processing poll information. The results indicated that individuals' attitudes can be influenced by reports of public opinion polls they see in the mass media, especially when their motivation is low. Ability, operationalized as knowledge about polling methodology and political expertise, did not turn out to be a significant determining factor in the process. The results of this study indicate that the attitude that one holds at any given time might depend on salient information readily available. An intriguing effect of polls arises from the way people in general use poll information about the distribution of others' opinion when deciding their own positions toward issues.PhDCommunication and the ArtsMarketingMass communicationPsychologySocial SciencesSocial psychologyUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/131006/2/9825262.pd