The dynamic effects of immigration on political outcomes : Evidence From Sweden

This paper analyzes the impact of immigration on the political support for right-wing and leftwing parties in Sweden. Municipality level data on national parliamentary elections is used over the 2006 to 2018 period. To derive causal estimates, an instrumental variable strategy is implemented based on the spatial distribution of foreign-born in 1998. The impact of immigration is divided between the share of foreign-born and the most recent inflow of immigrants, to evaluate whether a dynamic process exists. Overall, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that hostility towards immigrants is temporary. Only the most recent inflow of immigrants has a positive impact on anti-immigration voting, while the share of immigrants has a negative effect. In the context of pro-immigration support, the opposite results are revealed. By exploring the channels behind the results, concerns on neighborhood quality, and not economical competition, seems to be the driving factor of the short-run resistance towards immigration