The rise of Strongmen leaders : a threat to global security

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2020.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the post-Cold War future was one characterised by democratic liberalism, economic prosperity and a global liberal order. However, after decades of the spread and success of democratic liberalism, the world is seeing a global democratic recession. Instead of liberal democracy, the present and future is seemingly being characterised by growing illiberal democracy. A key element to the rise of these other political regimes and the global decline of democracy, is the rise of political Strongmen. Defined as elected leaders who use a political style characterised as populist, authoritarian and assertive, these Strongmen pose a risk to liberal democracy. This thesis examines the rise of these Strongmen, and specifically, how Strongman leadership threatens global security. The thesis also made reference to Francis Fukuyama’s famous argument The End of History and Last Man as his theory is commonly referenced in the examination of these leaders, as well as in the exploration of the current worldwide democratic decline. The use of Fukuyama’s thesis sought not to critique his argument, but rather to show how the rise of these Strongmen and their political leadership, bears as an obstacle to the stable, prosperous, democratic future that Fukuyama foresaw. Willing to go to extremes to protect their vote share, change the rules of the political game, preach politics of fear and resentment, and undermine democratic principles such as civil liberties and the separation of powers, the Strongman can be seen to not only threaten regional security but potentially increase geopolitical insecurity. The study chose to comparatively study Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Recep Erdogan of Turkey and Viktor Orban of Hungary. These three leaders and their respective nations were chosen as following the end of the Cold War, they were considered most likely to democratically consolidate. Further, similarly all three leaders came to power through democratic elections and lastly, all three nations are influential global actors. The study examined the three leaders on four variables seen as intrinsic elements of Strongman leadership; the violation of human rights, the erosion of key democratic institutions, the violation of human rights, populist nationalism, and the violation of sovereignty and international law. These variables were chosen not only for their identification of Strongman leadership but were also analysed as the most likely to threaten global security and stability. Using these principles also aided in establishing the presence/ extent of Strongman leadership in each nation. In conclusion, the study found that Strongman leadership does threaten global security through various facets. Specifically, through the four intrinsic variables, the Strongman’s actions, policies and ideologies can lead to further geopolitical insecurity. Focusing on Russia, Hungary and Turkey and their respective leaders, showed how their leadership can create or exacerbate instability, and ultimately erode global security.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Na die einde van die Koue Oorlog en die ontbinding van die Sowjet Unie, waqs die toekoms van die post Koue Oorlog gekenmerk deur demokratiese liberalisme, ekonomiese voorspoed en ‘n internasionale toestand van liberale orde. Na dekades van die uitbreiding en sukses van demokratiese liberalisme, sien die wêreld egter tans die resessie van globale demokrasie. In plaas van liderale demokrasie, word die hede en toekoms oënskynlik deur groeiende onliberale demokrasie gekenmerk. ‘n Kenmerkende element van hierdie en ander politieke regimes, asook die agteruitgang van globale demokrasie, is die die opkoms van individuele politieke magsfigure. Hulle word gedefinieer as verkose leiers wat ‘n politieke styl, gekenmerk deur populisme, magsbeheptheid en sekerheid ten toon stel, maar wat ‘n bedreiging vir globale liberale demokrasie daarstel. Hierdie verhandeling ondersoek die opkoms van die magsfigure en in besonder, op watter wyse magsfiguur-leierskap globale sekerheid bedreig. Die verhandeling verwys ook na die bekende argument van Francis Fukuyama, “The End of History and Last Man”, omdat daar in die algemeen daarna verwys word wanneer hierdie leiers ondersoek word, sowel as die ondersoek van die wêreldwye agteruitgang van demokrasie. Die gebruik van Fukuyama se verhandeling, het nie ten doel om hom te kritiseer nie, maar eerder om aan te dui hoe die opkoms van hierdie magsfigure en hulle politiek leierskap ‘n hindernis vir die stabiele, voorspoedige en demokratiese toekoms wat Fukuyama voorsien is. Die magsfigure is bereid om tot uiterstes te gaan vir die beskerming van hulle kiesers aandeel, die wysiging van die reëls van die politieke spel, die prediking van politieke vrees en verwyt, asook die ondermyning van demokratiese beginsels, soos burgerlike vryhede en die skeiding van magte. As sulks kan hierdie magsfigure nie alleen as ‘n bedreiging vir streeksveiligheid gesien word nie, maar ook ‘n toename in geo-politiese onsekerheid te weegbring. Die studie het ten doel om ‘n vergelykende studie van Rusland se Vladimir Putin, Turkye se Recep Erdogan en Hongarye se Viktor Orban, te doen. Hierdie drie leiers en hulle onderskeie nasies, post Koue Oorlog, was as onderwerp gekies, aangesien hulle as die mees waarskynlik beskou was om demokratiese konsolidasie te weeg te bring. Verder het aldrie leiers deur demokratiese verkiesings aan bewind gekom en aldrie lande is invloedryke wêreldmagte. Hierdie studie het die genoemde drie leiers ondersoek aan die hand van vier verandelikes, wat as intrinsieke kenmerke van magsfiguur-leierskap gesien kan word; die aantasting van mense regte, aftakeling van demokratiese instansies, populistiese nasionalisme en die skending van soewereiniteit en Volkereg. Hierdie veranderlikes was nie net vir hulle indentifikasie van magsfiguur-leierskap gekies nie, maar is ook geanaliseer as die mees voor die handliggende bedreiging vir wêreld sekerheid en stabiliteit. Die toepassing van hierdie beginsels, het ook daartoe bygedra dat die aard en omvang van magsfiguur-leierskap in elke land vasgestel kon word. Ter afsluiting, hierdie ondersoek het bevinfd dat magsfiguur-leierskap inderdaad die wêereldorde in vele opsigte bedreig. In besonder, deur middel van die vier onderliggende veranderlikes, kan die magsfiguur-leiers se optredes, beleide en ideologieë verder tot geo-polities onsekerheid aanleiding gee. Deur of Rusland, Hongarye en Turkye en hulle onderskeie leiers te focus, word daar aangedui in watter mate hulle leierskap onstabiliteit en uiteindelik globale sekerheid, kan veroorsaak en vererger.Master