Presnosť predikcií hospodárskeho rastu európských centrálnych bank

This thesis deals with evaluating accuracy of GDP prediction. Several indicators will be calculated to determine the accuracy, e.g. mean absolute error, root mean squared error, average forecast error and Theil coefficient. First section presents history of economic theory understanding, general description of DSGE model and description of national models. Countries with most and least reliable prediction models are identified through analysis. GEAR model of German national bank ended up as most reliable, while ÉIRE model of National Bank of Ireland is on the other side with lowest score. If company is seeking the most reliable information about future changes of GDP, it shall look for predictions of German national bank. Having more precise predictions leads to sustainable and stable business sphere