Program attrition among juvenile justice-involved youth and its relationship with reoffending outcomes from the Changing Habits and Reaching Targets (CHART) program

Background: Those who fail to complete intervention programs are at greater risk of reoffending and often re-offend more rapidly. The research into the prediction of program attrition is inconsistent and currently there is a paucity of research surrounding the factors that predict program attrition among juvenile justice-involved youth and how program attrition impacts recidivism within an Australian setting. Methods: This study employed a historical cohort design utilising data that had been previously collected by Juvenile Justice field staff and entered into a client database. The cohort consisted of 1315 youth who participated in the Changing Habits and Reaching Targets (CHART) program between 1 January 2013 and 1 January 2015. All participants were matched to the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research’s (BOCSAR) Reoffending Database (RoD) to obtain recidivism data for a period of 12 months from date of program completion or attrition. Logistic regression analysis and survival analytic techniques were employed. Results: Program attrition was at a high rate among the cohort, with the majority of youth failing to complete the CHART program due to administrative or other factors rather than client-initiated factors. Program attrition was shown to be associated with key factors, such as non-compliance with the legal order, having a first contact with juvenile justice for a youth justice conference, and residing in a metropolitan area during program delivery compared to regional/remote areas. Youth who failed to complete the CHART program were at significantly greater risk of re-offending when controlling for multiple explanatory variables. Youth who failed to complete the CHART program also had a greater number of re-offences when compared to recidivistic completers. A number of predictor factors previously found to be associated with program attrition failed to achieve statistical significance. Conclusions This research suggests that a number of factors can be used to predict program attrition among youth. Furthermore, program attrition is associated with an increased risk of recidivism among youth and this highlights the importance of identifying those who are likely to fail to complete the CHART program. Young people who fail to complete programs like CHART may require specific assessment and support