ANÁLISE DO PERIGO DE INCÊNDIOS FLORESTAIS EM UM MUNICÍPIO DA AMAZÔNIA MATO-GROSSENSE, BRASIL

The aim of this paper were to establish fire season as well as to propose proceedings in order to reduce fire risk, specifically at “Novo Mundo” county, located in “Mato Grosso” State, Brazil. A forest fire forecast methodology was applied to reach the proposed objectives. The research was carried out along 2000-2005. Fire danger was daily calculated using Monte Alegre Formula, and the results were graphically represented through the A.M.A.D.O. software. The statistics had been developed using Statgraphics Centurion XV program, and applying the methodology proposed by Box and Jenkins (1976). Furthermore, some actions to reduce fire risk had been suggested. Results points to May, June, July and August as the most critical months regarding fire risk, mainly due to the rain shortage along the period. The mitigation measures proposed in this work are easy to implement and could be carried out by county authorities and local community, leading to improvement of forest fire control in the county or even the whole region.Com o objetivo de estabelecer o período de maior perigo de incêndios florestais e propor medidas mitigadoras de riscos de incêndios florestais para o município de Novo Mundo, Mato Grosso, Brasil, foi aplicado um estudo de previsão de perigo de incêndios florestais. O trabalho foi realizado utilizando-se dados de uma série climática correspondente ao período de 2000 a 2005, obtida junto ao Instituto de Meteorologia (INMET). A metodologia aplicada se deu através do cálculo diário do índice de perigo de incêndios florestais, utilizando-se a Fórmula de Monte Alegre (FMA), sendo os dados graficamente representados através do programa A.M.A.D.O. A análise estatística foi realizada com auxílio do programa Statgraphics Centurion XV, e a sazonalidade dos índices de perigo de incêndios foi expressa a partir dos modelos propostos por Box; Jenkins (1976). Foram elaboradas propostas mitigadoras de riscos de incêndios florestais. Os resultados indicaram que os meses de maio, junho, julho e agosto foram os mais perigosos, devido à escassez ou ausência total de precipitação. As medidas mitigadoras de riscos propostas neste estudo são simples e de fácil aplicação, podendo contribuir de forma eficaz e segura para previsão, prevenção e controle de incêndios florestais no município.Palavras-chave: Fogo; proteção florestal; Amazônia. AbstractFire danger analysis in a county located in Mato Grosso State, Amazon region, Brazil. The aim of this paper were to establish fire season as well as to propose proceedings in order to reduce fire risk, specifically at “Novo Mundo” county, located in “Mato Grosso” State, Brazil. A forest fire forecast methodology was applied to reach the proposed objectives. The research was carried out along 2000-2005. Fire danger was daily calculated using Monte Alegre Formula, and the results were graphically represented through the A.M.A.D.O. software. The statistics had been developed using Statgraphics Centurion XV program, and applying the methodology proposed by Box and Jenkins (1976). Furthermore, some actions to reduce fire risk had been suggested. Results points to May, June, July and August as the most critical months regarding fire risk, mainly due to the rain shortage along the period. The mitigation measures proposed in this work are easy to implement and could be carried out by county authorities and local community, leading to improvement of forest fire control in the county or even the whole region.Keywords: Forest fire; forest protection; Amazon