A forecasting model for photovoltaic module energy production

Energy is of concern for governments and economies all over the world. As conventional methods of energy production are facing the prospect of depleting fossil fuel reserves, economies are facing energy risks. With this tension, various threats arise in terms of energy supply security. A shift from intensive fossil fuel consumption to alternative energy consumption combined with the calculated use of fossil fuels needs to be implemented. Using the energy radiated from the sun and converted to electricity through photovoltaic energy conversion is one of the alternative and renewable sources to address the limited fossil fuel dilemma. South Africa receives an abundance of sunlight irradiance, but limited knowledge of the implementation and possible energy yield of photovoltaic energy production in South Africa is available. Photovoltaic energy yield knowledge is vital in applications for farms, rural areas and remote transmitting devices where the construction of electricity grids are not cost effective. In this study various meteorological and energy parameters about photovoltaics were captured in Port Elizabeth (South Africa) and analyzed, with data being recorded every few seconds. A model for mean daily photovoltaic power output was developed and the relationships between the independent variables analyzed. A model was developed that can forecast mean daily photovoltaic power output using only temperature derived variables and time. The mean daily photovoltaic power model can then easily be used to forecast daily photovoltaic energy output using the number of sunlight seconds in a given day