Determinants of economic growth in South Africa: an economic analysis of the Keynesian macroeconomic model

A country’s performance is commonly measured by its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The Gross Domestic Product in Developing Countries (DCs) can be seen confusing and unbalanced, with regular and unconditional falls and booms. This study aims at examining the factors that affect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Developing Countries (DCs) whereby South Africa is being selected as a representative. An econometric analysis of the Keynesian model is adopted to test the South African Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over a decade (10 years). The methodology conducted uses quarterly time series data from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) where the South African Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is modelled as a function of consumption expenditure, domestic investment, government spending and export/import of the country. This is in order to determine which of these factors best explain South African economic growth dynamics. The variables in the model are tested for stationary and the result shows that the variables become stationary at 1st difference, except for consumption which become stationary at 2nd difference. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) results confirm that consumption, investment, government spending and net export all have a positive impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings suggest that the South African Gross Domestic Product is mainly influenced by consumption, followed by investment. In the recommendation context, the study recommends that South Africa should continue to maintain price stability while at the same time endeavour to attract more investment to the country. Moreover, Developing Countries need to maintain a fiscal discipline without necessarily losing sight of the international dynamics. For further areas of studies, the study recommends more analysis on macroeconomic policies that are comprehensive and can cover all aspects related to the Keynesian model of economic growth. Finally, it is necessary to remind that the findings and recommendations drawn from the study are limited to the concept of South Africa and are based only on the results from the empirical analysis conducted