A comparative analysis of the determinants of South Africa bilateral trade flows with the European Union-Southern African development community economic partnership agreement and trade development and cooperation agreement

This research dissertation presents the impact of economic size, market size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with the European Union under the Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA). The Big Five EU members are used to represent the EU trading bloc. The research also examines the effects of economic size, market size and ex-change rate on South African trade flows with members of the Southern African Customs Union and of the European Union in what is called the European Union-Southern African Development Community Economic Partnership Agreement (EU-SADC EPA). The research employs comparative analysis aimed at identifying the differences in the effects of market size, economic size and exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows with these two trading blocs. The study exploits panel data on international trade of South Africa over the period 2000-’16. A gravity model of trade is used to identify the effect of these three variables on South Africa’s trade flows. The empirical analysis relies on a panel data econometrics framework as an estimation technique for the gravity model of trade between South Africa and the Big Five EU members. This shows the outcomes of the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate on the trade flows of South Africa in the TDCA. The same technique is applied to estimate the effects of economic size, market size and exchange rate to trade flows of South Africa with the Big Five EU members as well as the other SACU members representing the SADC-EU EPA. In the panel data approach, three models are adopted. These are pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects that can be estimated. The Hausman tests shows that the random effect is appropriate in the TDCA gravity function and the results indicate a positive relationship be-tween South Africa’s economic/market size and South Africa’s trade flows in the TDCA. In the EU-SADC EPA, the Hausman tests indicated that the fixed effect models are appropriate and the results show a positive relationship between economic size and market size with South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. However, in the TDCA, the random effect model shows that exchange rate and the trading partner’s market size have a negative outcome on South Africa trade flows. The fixed effect model shows a negative relationship between the exchange rate and South Africa’s trade flows in the EU-SADC EPA. The results also show that it is better for South Africa to trade in the EU-SADC EPA than to remain in the TDCA. This is because the outcomes of economic and market size on South Africa’s trade flows are greater in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. On the other hand the negative effect of the exchange rate on South Africa’s trade flows is less in the EU-SADC EPA than in the TDCA. The research recommends that policy-makers select trading partners based on the sizes of their markets and economies