Possible futures of health technologies for South Africa towards 2035

The purpose of this treatise is to develop four alternative scenarios for Possible Futures of Health Technologies for South Africa towards 2035. A desired future in the form of a future vision will be presented as well as recommendations made to the relevant decision-making stakeholders for implementation. This study employs a futures studies methodology known as the Six Pillars used in mapping the present and future, further deepening and broadening the future through the development of scenarios, and lastly, transforming the future by tapering it down to the preferred vision. The four scenarios in this study are informed by current affairs, a qualitative study with industry experts as well as global views and research. The scenarios are as follows: ‘Health Technology Hub’, which is the ‘best case’ scenario, to which the country aspires; ‘Medicating Backwards’, the ‘worst case’ scenario, in which everything turns negative; ‘Frozen Revolution’, in which no change occurs, making it ‘business as usual’ and ‘Trans-humans’, the outlier future based on a disruptive or emerging issue. The way the world works is changing rapidly due to disruptive technologies. Demographic shifts such as the high birth rate in Africa will bring about opportunities for the economy. Health technologies, for this study, is regarded as the application of knowledge and skills in the form of devices, medicines, vaccines, procedures and systems as well as the convergence of digital technologies with health to improve the efficiency of healthcare delivery, solve health issues, offer personalised medicines and improve the quality of lives. Technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), virtual reality (VR), Internet of Things (IoT), 3D printing, robotics, nanotechnology are seen as the next disruptors. Healthcare in Africa is under pressure to transform, and future trends that stem from the Fourth Industrial Revolution will need to provide innovative, affordable, accessible, good quality, efficient and sustainable solutions. Along with these technologies comes the factors such as the fear of the impact on jobs, inequality, privacy, security and healthcare in South Africa. The outcomes of the extensive analysis of futures studies in this study provide credibility to the argument that current planning for the future of health technologies in South Africa needs intense modifications. The development of insightful plausible futures is essential to the planning process and is seen to be an effective strategic tool employed by businesses. It is the responsibility of private and public sectors to ascertain which path is preferred and what decisions need to be made to ensure that vision is realised and that SA progresses toward economic growth and sustainable development. The ‘Future Vision of Health Technologies in South Africa Towards 2035’ is attainable if all stakeholders agree to work collaboratively, communicate transparently, educate the people of the land, regulate appropriately, build trust, increase innovation, include communities and share the purpose