Monitoring changes in vegetation distribution to ascertain the extent of degradation in the savannas of Nkonkobe Local Municipality, Eastern Cape, South Africa

Savanna degradation is an environmental problem occurring in most countries around the world and it poses threats to biodiversity conservation, the food industry, and other economic sectors. According to FAO, South Africa’s rangelands exhibit the highest rate of fragmentation in comparison to range ecosystems in neighbouring countries including Lesotho and Swaziland, and consensus among researchers is that communal rangelands are more degraded than commercial rangelands. Although researchers and communities have identified the occurrence of land degradation in communal savannas at a local scale, land degradation has been poorly estimated because little has been done to quantify the extent and dynamics of perceived and observed changes associated with land degradation. The main goal of this study is to provide empirical insights on the direction of changes in the communal savannas of Nkonkobe Local Municipality in order to inform policy formulation and implementation. Additional to the communal sites is a private farm included for comparative analysis of trends in communal and commercial savannas. Landsat imagery was used to map, assess, and quantify the extent of land degradation in Nkonkobe Local Municipality, over a period of 30 years between 1984 and 2014. Field investigations were undertaken in June 2015 to acquire reference data to guide supervised classification of Landsat images. Three algorithms (Mahalanobis-distance, Minimum-distance, and Maximum likelihood classification) were compared to identify a classifier that produced the best results. The maximum likelihood classifier produced the best results with classification accuracy levels of 95.24 percent, 89.66 percent, and 95.65 percent for Honeydale Farm, Thyume, and Sheshegu respectively. Regression analysis revealed that both communal and private lands have experienced statistically significant increases in bush encroachment and decreases in surface water. Communal savannas have been confronted more by expansion of built-up area, decrease in open grassland, abandonment of arable land, soil erosion, and a steady invasion by Acacia Karroo compared to the privately owned commercial farm. The land cover changes measured through this investigation suggest an environmental shift that threatens biodiversity and agricultural activity. The study provides empirically informed insights about the direction to which these savannas are changing with the hope that the findings will prompt formulation and implementation of effective policies