The impact of oil price variability on the exchange rate in South Africa

Economic theory asserts that exchange rate is a critical variable in the performance of exports and the economy at large. Equally important are variables that affect the exchange rate. In particular, economies that rely on commodity exports are vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. Price volatility of such commodities can lead to significant fluctuations in exchange rates, a phenomenon referred to as commodity currencies. South Africa‘s currency has fluctuated significantly since 1994. Anecdotal evidence suggests that commodity prices may have a significant effect. Of interest is fluctuations in the oil prices, which in themselves have fluctuated greatly over the same period. This study uses a GARCH(1.1) model to investigate the impact of oil price variability on the South African exchange rate by employing the monthly data for a period spanning from January 1994 to December 2014. The results show that oil price variability affects both the level and volatility of the exchange rate. Informal evidence suggests that sovereign credit ratings are an important factor affecting the South African rand. This is supported by the results of this study. Accordingly, both variables carry important information for markets and policy makers at large