Analysis of the urbanisation effects on the increase of flood susceptibility in coastal areas

The unplanned urbanisation causes severe environmental, economic and social impacts to a region and its surroundings. Without providing adequate infrastructure, peri-urban areas might turn into dispersing and disorganised urban sprawls. The concept of sustainability already confirms the need of integrated urban and water resources management. For that, policymakers and planners need to be aware of the impacts caused by land use and land cover changes while urbanising a region. Remote sensing techniques and GIS frameworks provide tools to process and achieve data in a less expensive, time-efficient and accurate way. In addition, hydrological models simulate the effects of different land use change scenarios on the basin runoff or discharge. For such assessment, the runoff curve number method is widely used due to requiring a few parameters, such as land use and land cover classes and hydrological soil groups. However, for the determination of hydrological soil groups, the saturated hydraulic conductivity data is not always available in weathered soils like the ones located in Brazil. In the study, the method used for the hydrological soil group acquisition was based on the local physical and mineralogical properties, more suitable for the regional conditions and available data. This paper presents the final assessment results showing the most flood-susceptible areas of Juqueriquere River Basin due to land use and land cover changes predicted by the City Master Plan development114304