Mapping and evaluating sugarcane expansion in Brazil's savanna using MODIS and intensity analysis: a case-study from the state of Tocantins

In Brazil, the main biofuel crop is sugarcane, and with its rapid expansion, there is much debate about what land uses and land covers it is replacing, and what are the associated environmental and social impacts. Some argue sugarcane is mainly replacing cattle pasture, thus having minimal impacts on native vegetation and small-scale family farming. In contrast, others claim sugarcane is replacing cropland traditionally under soybeans, rice, beans, and corn. Thus, food security is negatively affected and small-scale family farming livelihoods and culture are threatened. This is a proof-of-concept paper illustrating methods contributing toward the resolution of such debates. First we map land use and cover change in areas undergoing sugarcane expansion using satellite data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer); second, we test the hypothesis that sugarcane is replacing traditional annual crops using intensity analysis, via a case study of land change in the municipality of Pedro Afonso, Tocantins in northern Brazil between the 2008-2013 crop years. Maps matched reference data with overall agreements between 87-91%. Intensity analysis confirmed sugarcane is replacing annual crops much more than cattle pasture and other land uses and covers, pointing to particular economic and social processes driving land change.126457476COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL DE NÍVEL SUPERIOR - CAPESFUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - FAPESPSem informação2015/19437