Balansering av Sveriges elsystem år 2040 – En teknoekonomisk analys

Sweden's future electricity system is facing a transformation, where nuclear power will gradually be phased out, while there is a large expansion of wind power. The declining wind power prices, together with Sweden's goal of a 100% renewable electricity system in 2040, makes it an attractive resource. However, a change from a secure supply of energy from nuclear production, to a more variable with wind power, can lead to challenges for the electricity system to continuously achieve power balance. If these periods of power deficit occur, then additional balance power will need to be added to the system. The purpose of this report is to investigate the need for balance power, in an electricity system with a high proportion of wind power in 2040. Two scenarios for Sweden's electricity generation and electricity use have been investigated in the report. The first scenario is a 100% renewable electricity system, while the second scenario contains a certain part of today's nuclear power. These systems have been modeled and results for future power and energy balances have been produced. Subsequently, five different resources were investigated, which in the future are thought to play a greater role in helping with balance power. These were gas turbines, utility-scale battery storage, pumped hydro storage, and demand response from industry and households. The results show that the system primarily faces a power problem. Depending on the scenario, there are 6-7.6 GW missing in the system. At most, power shortages occur 5% of all hours of the year. However from an energy point of view, the shortage can be considered marginal, as it is missing at most 0.5% of annual production. The lengths of the power deficits have also been investigated. From the analysis and modellingof balance alternatives, it was seen that gas turbines were advantageous because of their ability to produce energy continuously, for which this became a limitation for utility-scale battery storage and pumped hydro storage as they discharge. Costs for different balance alternatives were calculated and compared. The least expensive system consisted solely of gas turbines. Since it is mainly the intermittency of wind power that give rise to these costs, it was also investigated what the production cost of electricity from wind power together with a balancing cost was, compared with that for nuclear power. The results showed that wind power together with the cost of balancing was several times lower. The simulations also witnessed that a more prolonged and large-scale demand response from industry was able to lower costs of balancing. The report's main conclusion is that a fully renewable electricity system is possible in 2040 and that the cost of the imbalances caused by wind power is nothigh enough to justify investments in new nuclear power.Sveriges framtida elsystem står inför en stor omställning, där kärnkraft successivt kommer att fasas ut, samtidigt som det sker en stor utbyggnad av vindkraft. Vindkraftens sjunkande priser, tillsammans med Sveriges mål om ett 100 % förnybart elsystem år 2040, gör det till en attraktiv resurs. En omställning från en leveranstrygg elproduktion baserad på kärnkraft, till en mer variabel med vindkraft, kan dock leda till utmaningar för elsystemet att kontinuerligt uppnå effektbalans. Om dessa perioder med effektunderskott uppstår, så kommer ytterligare balanskraft att behöva tillsättas systemet. Syftet med denna rapport är att undersöka behovet av balanskraft i ett elsystem med hög andel vindkraft år 2040. I rapporten har två scenarier för Sveriges elproduktion och elanvändning undersökts. Det första scenariot är ett 100 % förnybart elsystem medan det andra scenariot innehåller 15 TWh årlig produktion från kärnkraft. Dessa system har modellerats och resultat för framtida effekt- och energibalanser har tagits fram. Därefter undersöktes fem olika resurser som i framtiden antas kunna få en större roll i att bidra med balanskraft. Dessa var gasturbiner, storskaliga batterilager, pumpvattenkraft, samt efterfrågflexibilitet från industri och hushåll. Resultaten visar att elsystemet framförallt står inför en effektproblematik. Beroende på scenario saknas det stundtals 6-7,6 GW i systemet. Som mest uppstår effektbrist 5 % av årets alla timmar. Ur en energisynpunkt kan dock bristen anses vara marginell då det på årsbasis saknas som mest 0,5 % av den årliga produktionen. Förutom den effekt- och energibrist som uppstår i systemet så har även avbrottens längder undersökts. Från analysen och modelleringen av balansalternativ sågs att gasturbiner hade stora fördelar utifrån möjligheten att leverera effekt kontinuerligt, vilket blev en begränsning för batterilager och pumpvattenkraft då dessa laddar ur. Kostnader för olika system beräknades och ställdes mot varandra. Det billigaste systemet bestod enbart av gasturbiner. Då det är framförallt vindkraften som ger upphov till dessa kostnader, så undersöktes även vad produktionskostnaden för el från vindkraft tillsammans med en balanseringskostnad var, i jämförelse med den för kärnkraft. Resultaten visade på att vindkraft tillsammans med kostnaden för balansering var flerfaldigt lägre. Av simulering sågs även en mer långvarig och storskalig industrirespons kunna sänka kostnaderna för balansering. Rapportens huvudsakliga slutsats är att ett 100 % förnybart elsystem är möjligt år 2040 och att kostnaden för de obalanser som vindkraften skulle orsaka inte är tillräckligt höga för att motivera investeringar i ny kärnkraft. Sweden's future electricity system is facing a transformation, where nuclear power will gradually be phased out, while there is a large expansion of wind power. The declining wind power prices, together with Sweden's goal of a 100 % renewable electricity system in 2040, makes it an attractive resource. However, a change from a secure supply of energy from nuclear production, to a more variable with wind power, can lead to challenges for the electricity system to continuously achieve power balance. If these periods of power deficit occur, then additional balance power will need to be added to the system. The purpose of this report is to investigate the need for balance power, in an electricity system with a high proportion of wind power in 2040. Two scenarios for Sweden's electricity generation and electricity use have been investigated in the report. The first scenario is a 100% renewable electricity system, while the second scenario contains a certain part of today's nuclear power. These systems have been modeled and results for future power and energy balances have been produced. Subsequently, five different resources were investigated, which in the future are thought to play a greater role in helping with balance power. These were gas turbines, utility-scale battery storage, pumped hydro storage, and demand response from industry and households. The results show that the system primarily faces a power problem. Depending on the scenario, there are 6-7.6 GW missing in the system. At most, power shortages occur 5 % of all hours of the year. However from an energy point of view, the shortage can be considered marginal, as it is missing at most 0.5 % of annual production. The lengths of the power deficits have also been investigated. From the analysis and modelling of balance alternatives, it was seen that gas turbines were advantageous because of their ability to produce energy continuously, for which this became a limitation for utility-scale battery storage and pumped hydro storage as they discharge. Costs for different balance alternatives were calculated and compared. The least expensive system consisted solely of gas turbines. Since it is mainly the intermittency of wind power that give rise to these costs, it was also investigated what the production cost of electricity from wind power together with a balancing cost was, compared with that for nuclear power. The results showed that wind power together with the cost of balancing was several times lower. The simulations also witnessed that a more prolonged and large-scale demand response from industry was able to lower costs of balancing. The report's main conclusion is that a fully renewable electricity system is possible in 2040 and that the cost of the imbalances caused by wind power is not high enough to justify investments in new nuclear power