Assessing the Adaptive Capacity of Idaho's Magic Valley as a Complex Social-Ecological System

Similar to a majority of the Western United States, Idaho’s Magic Valley region is predicted to experience future climate uncertainties, including a warming climate, variable precipitation events, and a decrease in water availability during prime irrigation months, as well as demographic and land use changes. With water users already encountering conflict in this water scarce region, the ability for the Magic Valley and its encompassing Upper Snake River Basin to adapt to future climate uncertainties is vital for ensuring the region can sustain its agribusiness economy. This research assesses the region as a complex social-ecological system and takes an explorative view into the evolution of the Magic Valley’s institutions in charge of water administration and management to understand how they have increased their adaptive capacity over time in response to system disturbance. Observations from this research can help to highlight both the adaptive capacity of this region to respond to future disturbances as well as its vulnerabilities to inform future planning initiatives toward resiliency and sustainability for the region’s water supply.masters, M.S., Water Resources -- University of Idaho - College of Graduate Studies, 2019-0