Pandemic Pending

Governments around the world are becoming increasingly concerned about athreat to global security of microscopic size*/an avian influenza virus calledH5N1. From a health perspective, this virus has a devastating effect on poultryand is highly lethal when it infects humans. The key point from a securityperspective, however, is that it might soon forsake its avian hosts and mutateinto a form that enables disease transmission between humans. The prospect ofpandemic influenza touches the security nerve of people and politicians in waysthat set this disease apart from the many others that may be regarded simply ashealth issues. A pandemic virus would potentially cause illness and death on alarge scale, but that alone is not what excites the imagination. Diseases otherthan influenza exact a great human toll, most notably AIDS, tuberculosis andmalaria, but they do so in a slow-acting and relatively familiar manner. Bycontrast, the effects of an influenza pandemic would be swift and unfamiliar.This in turn could generate levels of dread and disruption vastly disproportionate to the likelihood that any given individual will become infected and die.Individuals have a deep-seated, visceral fear of infection associated with theinvisibility of a disease threat and the notion of horrific symptoms leading to anunpleasant death. In addition, societies have a collective fear of contagioninformed by dark memories of past pestilences such as smallpox and bubonicplague. In the case of pandemic influenza, this dread of disease would beamplified by the speed with which damage would occur. Just as nations fearmilitary conflict because so many national achievements could be quicklyundone, so too an influenza pandemic would swiftly set back hard-won economic gains and potentially undermine trust in government. And like the all-consuming effort of prosecuting a war, defeating ‘the flu’ would become a first order issue for governments*/one which would alter the premise for all other activity.Against this backdrop of dread, the threat posed by H5N1 can be placed inperspective by examining: the story so far of how the virus has spread; the likelyhuman damage if H5N1 mutates into a pandemic form; and what can be doneto mitigate that damage