Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, TB and malaria in low- and middle-income countries: a modelling study
- Hogan, A
- Jewell, B
- Sherrard-Smith, E
- Watson, O
- Whittaker, C
- Hamlet, A
- Smith, J
- Winskill, P
- Verity, R
- Baguelin, M
- Lees, J
- Whittles, L
- Ainslie, K
- Bhatt, S
- Boonyasiri, A
- Brazeau, N
- Cattarino, L
- Cooper, L
- Coupland, H
- Cuomo-Dannenburg, G
- Dighe, A
- Djaafara, A
- Donnelly, C
- Eaton, J
- Van Elsland, S
- Fitzjohn, R
- Fu, H
- Gaythorpe, K
- Green, W
- Haw, D
- Hayes, S
- Hinsley, W
- Imai, N
- Laydon, D
- Mangal, T
- Mellan, T
- Mishra, S
- Parag, K
- Thompson, H
- Unwin, H
- Vollmer, M
- Walters, C
- Wang, H
- Ferguson, N
- Okell, L
- Churcher, T
- Arinaminpathy, N
- Ghani, A
- Walker, P
- Hallett, T
DOIAbstract
Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, including by cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions in services for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis (TB) and malaria in low- and middle-income countries with high burdens of those disease could lead to additional loss of life. Methods: We constructed plausible scenarios for the disruptions that could be incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic and used established transmission models for each disease to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings. Findings: In high burden settings, HIV-,...
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