Uncertainty quantification for river flow simulation applied to a real test case: the Garonne valley

[Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]GEUSI [ADD1_IRSTEA]Hydrosystèmes et risques naturelsInternational audienceSensitivity analysis techniques have been widely used in multitude of applications to quantify the impact of inputs variables imprecision on the accuracy of the model output variables. Depending on the problem at hand, an appropriate method of sensitivity analysis should be selected. Direct and adjoint sensitivity analysis are two complementary approaches known to be efficient. While the direct approach provides an assessment of the propagation of the error of a given input parameter in the studied system, the adjoint approach enables to identify the source of the uncertainty of a given output variable with respect to several input parameters. Direct methods have been extensively investigated in different geophysical applications, particularly in the context of the hydraulic modeling. In this work, several methods will be described and applied to the same benchmark during over-flooding events. The effect of uncertainties in the boundary conditions, the spatially distributed functions (bed level, river width, friction, etc.) and the numerical parameters on the model state variables (discharge, water surface elevation, etc.) is examined. This study has been carried out on the Garonne River test case, along a 50 km downstream reach, using 1D full Saint-Venant hydraulic models SIC2 (Irstea) or Mascaret (EDF), and 2D Telemac model (EDF). Results illustrate the influence of individual and combined contributions of input variables uncertainties