The Effects of South Africa\u27s Unexpected Monetary Policy Shocks in the Common Monetary Area

The Common Monetary Area (CMA) is a multilateral agreement that provides a framework for a fixed exchange rate regime between the South-African Rand and the currencies of Lesotho, Eswatini, and Namibia (LEN). The nature of the arrangement restrains the LEN countries from exercising independent discretionary monetary policy. As a result, they must rely on the South African authorities for policy formulation and implementation. Interest rates in the LEN countries cannot deviate too far from those in South Africa. Given this limited scope for monetary policy in the LEN countries, this study investigates how each member country adjusts to shocks to the South African monetary policy instrument. Specifically, this paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to examine how economic output, inflation, narrow money supply, domestic credit, and lending rate spread in each member country react to shocks experienced in the South African repo rate using monthly data from the period 2000M2 to 2018M12. The main findings indicate that a positive shock to the South African repo rate tends to be followed by a decline in economic output and an appreciation in price levels at the 90 percent confidence interval for all CMA countries. Our results have also shown that there is an asymmetric response in money supply, domestic credit and lending rate spread between the LEN countries and South Africa, to a positive repo rate shock. These results suggest that policymakers in LEN countries must implement additional policy measures to circumvent the negative impact of South Africa\u27s monetary policy on their financial sectors