Stability and Change in Role Conceptions : The Case of Russia and the Annexation of Crimea

This paper addresses the question of whether Russia’s role conception changed after the annexation of Crimea. Research on role conceptions has a solid standing within foreign policy analysis, but information on role change and what it is that affects it has not been given the necessary attention. The paper’s theoretical framework contains earlier theoretical definitions of role conceptions and role change. In conjunction with the theoretical approach, process tracing and systematic text analysis with a focus on narratives are used as methodological tools. Relevant findings are then generated through the study of elite-expressions of the Russian master role from, firstly, the period between 2012 and late 2013, and, secondly, 2014. In brief, the results indicate that no major change occurred. Rather the role conception remained stable throughout both sequences. This suggests that the ramifications of the annexation of Crimea did not challenge the Russian master role and that it was not perceived as a crisis by Putin and his colleagues. Moreover, it is possible that role change more likely occurs when exceptional circumstances arise unexpectedly and when they fundamentally challenge ingrained role conceptions.