An Agricultural Model for the Central and Sacaba Valleys in Cochabamba, Bolivia

The purpose of this thesis is to assess the impact of increasing the quantity of water supplied for irrigated agriculture in the Central and Sacaba Valleys. Specifically, this study examines the feasibility of Misicuni multiple-purpose project in Cochabamba, Bolivia. This project involves construction of a reservoir for the purpose of irrigating and the above mentioned areas, supply potable water to the urban areas, and produced electrical power. The Misicuni Survey, Ministerio de Agricultura y Asuntos Campesionos (MACA) bulletins, and information from other institutions were used as a source of data for the formulation of a linear programming model which represents the agricultural sector in that area. Using the model, pseudo data relating different levels of agricultural production were obtained with different levels of input combinations. The problem was solved by maintaining the demand for agricultural products in the area at the levels prevalent in 1976-1977. This data was fitted by linear regression techniques to a translogarithmic production function which defines a continuous functional relationship between the value-added to GNP by the region under study and the input factors of production. The results derived from the estimated production function show that, unless considerable expansion in the demand for agricultural products is induced in this area, the change in the value of output through increases in the quantity of water available for irrigation by the Misicuni Project will be insignificant. If the government constructs the mentioned dam (as designed), there is a high probability of unused excess water resource capacity. This will result in considerable economic loss and a misallocation of the scarce resources of the country