Economic Simulation of Selected Management Strategies for a Typical Dairy Farm Faced with Declining Milk Prices

The purpose of this thesis is to study the effect of lower milk support prices trigger ed by chronic surplus production problems and to offer alter native management strategies for dairymen caught in the cash flow squeeze precipitated by resulting cuts in the producer price of milk. Historical dairy policy is reviewed and recommendations are offered for consideration in developing dairy policy over the next decade. FLIPSIM V, a powerful, firm-level computerized simulation model is employed to predict the probable outcome of employing alternative management strategies designed to improve profitability for individual dairymen. The study focuses on a typical farm devised from survey data to be representative of Utah\u27s dairy industry. A five-year planning horizon is simulated