Projections for School Population and Teacher Demand in the State of Utah for the Period 1970-200

The purpose of this study is to study future trends in student enrollment, according to age, sex, grades, and school levels, for different geographic areas, and teacher demand for the elementary and secondary levels of school in Utah from 1970 to the year 2000. For the secondary level information is also given for student enrollment according to different subject areas and the future demand of teachers for these subject areas. Projections were prepared for single calendar years from 1970 to the year 2000. The projections for the school children were based on total population projections for the state, prepared at the Department of Sociology, Utah State University. Census data and school enrollment data were used to obtain information for future trends. The component method of population projection was used to project the total population for the state and the enrollment-ratio method was used to project the school population. With 98 percent of the school-age population, (5-17 years of age), now enrolled in school, future increases or decreases in the school population would mainly come from changes in fertility or migration. The general findings of this study for the period 1970-2000, show an increase of 50,398 students, (16 percent), and 2,124 teachers, (17 percent). Elementary student population increased by 30,599 students and 1,293 teachers, whereas the secondary school population increased by 19,799 students, and 831 teachers. The majority of students are concentrated within four counties: Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Weber. In 1970 these counties comprised 77 percent of the school population and projected by the year 2000 to 82 percent