A Forecast and Analysis of Educational Events Identified by Utah Educators

Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine how Utah educators and school board members view the future of education in the state. This was done by comparing the ratings for importance and the predictions on the time of occurrence of 53 educational events. An event was an incident or happening which might effect the education of the state. The hypotheses were based on the assumption that the various educational groups would hold differing views concerning the future of Utah education. Procedure The study provided data on the perceptions of 236 individuals representing five groups of educational participants (State Department personnel, superintendents, other administrators, teachers, and school board members) concerning the future of education in the State of Utah within a 20-year period of time. The sample was randomly selected, with the exception of the superintendent group which included all of the superintendents of the state. An instrument consisting of 53 educational events was developed which enabled the respondents to express their perceptions of the importance of the events and predict when each of the events would occur in 60 percent of the schools of the state. Leik\u27s Measure of Ordinal Consensus was used to arrive at a consensus score which indicated the dispersion or lack of dispersion of responses within a group to a particular event. An analysis of variance was used to test for differences among the groups. Where a significant F-ratio was found, using the .05 level of significance, Duncan\u27s New Multiple Range Test was also utilized. This test was designed to locate differences between paired groups. Findings and conclusions 1. State Department personnel achieved the greatest amount of group consensus on the importance ratings of 53 educational events, while school board members achieved the least amount of group consensus. 2. State Department personnel obtained the greatest group consensus on the predicted time of occurrence of the 53 educational events, while teachers obtained the least amount of group consensus. 3. The educational event which was rated as most important to Utah education also obtained the greatest total group consensus and dealt with greater emphasis on vocational and technical education in the high schools. 4. There were no statistically significant differences noted on importance between State Department personnel, superintendents, and other administrators on any of the 53 educational events. 5. In general, the five groups achieved greater agreement on the predicted time of occurrence of future educational events than on their ratings of the importance of those events. 6. School board members were less in agreement with the total group than any single group. In general, school board members rated items less important and less likely to occur at an early date than did the other groups. 7. The two educational events considered of least importance to Utah education by the total group were: formal education beg inning at the age of three and windowless classrooms. Recommendations The recommendations were as follow: 1. An attempt should be made to narrow the differences between teachers and other groups of professional educators on their perceptions of the importance of certain future educational events. 2. Research should be undertaken to determine the causes of the differences which exist between the five groups of educational participants. 3. Other educational forecasts should include groups representing institutions of higher education and state legislatures. The supportive rationale being that institutions of higher education are responsible for the preparation and training of teachers and administrators, while legislatures may key decisions which have great impact upon education. 4. Similar studies should be undertaken in other states, since such information might very well become the basis for anticipating and shaping the educational future of those states