Evaluating the Present and Potential Future Impact of Small Satellites

The theme of the 18th Annual AIAA/USU Conference on Small Satellites questions whether small satellites are a complimentary or a disruptive technology. This paper addresses this question by performing an analysis of the role small satellites play in the space market. The market is segmented into three primary components, military space, civil space, and commercial space. Analysis focuses on the U.S. space market. The analysis shows that while small satellites perform some valuable missions, they represent only a small part of the overall space market. Furthermore, although there are some upcoming opportunities for small satellites, they do not appear to be poised for substantial growth in any of the markets. Interestingly, an ORBCOMM case study suggests that high launch costs are not a major obstacle to growth in the commercial space market since they represent just 10% of the total investment required. Overall, the study finds that small satellites are unlikely to be able to perform the roles played by large satellites, so any transition of small satellites from a complimentary to a disruptive technology must come through new applications that open up new markets