A Sketch Level Method for Assessing Transportation Network Resiliency toNatural Disasters and Man-Made Events

Every day the dependence on transportation systems and facilities grows as local, regional, national, and international independence increases. Resilient transportation systems are needed to maintain and secure the highest possible Level of Service in the face of disruptive events including natural disasters and man-made events. Because resources are limited, decision makers need guidance on how, when, and where to invest in order to improve resiliency of their networks and making them less vulnerable to disruptive events. The research objective is to develop a sketch level method to assess and quantify resiliency using a fuzzy inference approach. This research expands previous work refining key variable definitions, adjusting model structures, simplifying computational processes, and increasing transparency to support linkages to root causes. This paper presents the methodology and provides an illustrative example using a problem addressed by transportation professionals and policy makers on a recurring basis as they seek to protect quality of life under a range of disruptive conditions. The example provides an illustration of how a transportation infrastructure network responds to a disruptive event and how specific investments can increase resiliency of the network. The result of the methodology gives a quantitative basis for decision makers to conduct cost-benefit analysis of resiliency increasing projects