Effects of high-speed rail construction on the evolution of industrial agglomeration: evidence from three Great Bay Areas in China

High-speed rail is an important transportation infrastructure that can promote regional economic growth and adjust industrial layout. To explore the impact of high-speed rail construction on the industrial spatial layout of China’s Bay Area, the effects of high-speed rail construction on industrial spatial layout of the Circum-Bohai Great Bay Area, the Circum-Yangtze Estuary Great Bay Area, and the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area in China were analyzed by using DID (difference-in-differences) model and quantile treatment effect based on the panel data obtained from 2005 to 2016. Results demonstrate that high-speed rail construction significantly affects industrial spatial layout of urban areas. Due to high-speed rail construction, manufacturing and real estate industries in the Circum-Bohai Great Bay Area expand greatly and show a significant diffusion effect. This diffusion promotes agglomeration of wholesale and retail, real estate, transportation, warehousing, and post industries in small cities. High-speed rail construction exhibits an agglomeration effect on financial industry in the Circum-Yangtze Estuary Great Bay Area. Highspeed rail construction facilitates clustering of manufacturing, financial, and transportation industries in small cities. The impact of high-speed rail construction on manufacturing, accommodation and catering, financial, transportation, warehousing, and post industries in Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area shows a diffusion effect. In sum, high-speed rail construction causes an evolution of industrial agglomeration in three great bay areas in China. The conclusion provides decision references for optimization of industrial spatial layout in great bay areas