An agricultural sector model for the northern region of Sudan to evaluate new faba beans technologies

Faba beans are considered one of the major food crops in the Sudan. Recently real prices have been rising, suggesting that demand for them has been increasing faster than supply. The crop is produced in the Northern region of Sudan where market surpluses are transported to the main consumption centers of the country which are some distance from the region. The ICARDA/IFAD Nile Valley Project is designed to help improve faba bean production. This project developed and demonstrated a package of new technologies intended to increase yields and lower unit production costs. The package included, among other practices, (a) increased frequency of irrigation and (b) a pest control scheme. Partial budgeting analysis suggests that the proposed package is a potentially profitable alternative for farmers in the northern region. However, adoption rates of the new technologies by farmers have been quite slow. This study examines how well the proposed package fits into the farming systems of the region. What potential does the package hold for increasing production and lowering unit costs? What are the factors limiting its adoption? An agricultural sector model was developed for the northern region of Sudan. The model is essentially a partial equilibrium supply-demand balance for crops with supply represented by an LP representative farm model. Marketing institutions are represented by a margin relationship developed econometrically. An alternative model was developed by incorporating into the basic model the proposed improved technologies as separate activities. The model predicts low adoption rates of the proposed technologies. The analysis indicates that irrigation water is the factor most constraining farmers\u27 adoption of the new technologies. If additional irrigation water were to become available, both labor and water could become limiting factors at considerably higher wage rates and higher water costs. Marketing institutions also limit farmers\u27 adoption of the new technologies by preventing them from realizing the full benefits of the new technologies. Availability of water is critical to the adoption of the new technologies. The effect of high marketing margin could be reduced by improving marketing services