Empirical Tests of the Comprehensive Evaluation System of Readability of Chinese Annual Reports：An Approach Based on Monte Carlo-AHP and the Degree of Grey Relationship

【中文摘要】针对我国企业年度报告以中文语言为媒介，而中文与英文在语法规则、词汇构成等方面差异较大，导致国外经典模型无法对其可读性进行科学评估这一难题，本文在科学界定年报语法单元的基础上，借鉴新闻传播学与语言学可读性标准筛选符合中文年报特色的评价指标。首先，采用问卷调查构建 AHP（analytic hierarchy process，层次分析法）判断矩阵计算初始权重，确保可以反映阅读者对可读性的主观要求；其次，引入 MC（Monte Carlo，蒙特卡罗）方法对初始权重进行排序与矩阵模拟得到修正权重，降低相近指标间的主观偏误；最后，借助 R 语言文本挖掘技术提取年报数据，并采用灰色关联度进行综合评价实证分析，有效诠释可读性在企业间的相对性差异，对评价结果进行一致性检验与合理性判定。本文创新性地从中文可读性视角解读年度报告，刻画我国上市公司中文年报可读性的基本规律，有助于保护资本市场的信息披露环境。 【Abstract】Because Chinese language is used in a firm's annual report in China and there exists fundamental differences in grammar and vocabulary between Chinese and English languages，the classic models of linguistics based on English language cannot provide a scientific evaluation on readability. Based on the evaluation criteria of readability from Chinese communications and linguistics，this paper establishes a system of indicators that are constructed from various parts of annual reports. To that end，we first apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP）to questionnaire-surveys to calculate initial weights of an input matrix that reflect readers’ subjective opinions on readability. Then，we use Monte Carlo simulations to modify the initial weights and thus these modified weights contain less subjective bias. Lastly，using the text-mining application of R for extracting data from Chinese annual reports and then applying the Grey Relationship method to the extracted data，we empirically test the difference in readability among annual reports for different firms and check for consistency and plausibility of the differences. Our results reveal the fundamental regularities in readability of Chinese annual reports for listed firms in China and contribute to the accounting literature on readability of financial reports. Our results help to improve the information disclosure in China.本文受到国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’国家资金融通机制设计及资金配置效率评价体系研究”（18ZDA95）、中国科学技术协会高端科技创新智库青年项目“中国企业信息披露的规范化研究——基于年报可读性视角”（DXB-ZKQN-2017-022）、国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国上市公司精准扶贫行为研究：动机与经济后果”（71802043）和教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“外部大股东退出威胁的公司治理效应研究：流动性外生冲击的调节作用”（18YJC630007）的资助