The Research of Energy Efficiency and Potential of the Energy- saving and Emission- abating in Regions of China Considering the Difference of Natural Environment

在考虑自然环境差异的情况下,运用四阶段SBM模型测算了中国30个省区2000-2010年的生态全要素能源效率、碳排放效率和自然效应(自然环境的影响程度),并在此基础上分析了各省区的理论节能减排潜力与实际节能减排潜力。结果表明:全国平均的生态全要素能源效率和全要素碳排放效率仍处于较低水平,节能减排潜力和空间巨大;地形地貌、荒漠化沙化程度和年降水量等自然环境因素对能源效率和碳排放效率有显著的负向影响;调整前的理论能效和理论碳效的排名依次为东部、中部、西部,调整后的实际能效和实际碳效的排名则是中部、西部、东部;三大地区的自然效应差异显著,东部最优,中部次之,西部最次,恶劣的自然环境是造成西部地区低效率的主要原因。由于自然因素难以人为改变,国家在制定节能政策时应该适当地对西部地区降低指标,同时将节能减排的重点放在东部和中部地区。In the case of considering the differences of the natural environment,applying the four- stage SBM model,this paper calculated the ecological total- factor energy effciency,carbon emission efficiency and natural effect( the degree of influence of the natural environment),with a sample of 30 provinces of China over the period 2000- 2010,and analyzed each province's theoretical potential and actual potential of the energy- saving and emission- abating. The results showed that: the national average eco- total- factor energy efficiency and total- factor carbon efficiency is still at a low level,and the potential of energy saving is huge;topography,desertification degree and annual precipitation and other natural environmental factors have a significant negative impact on energy efficiency and carbon emission efficiency; theoretical energy efficiency and carbon efficiency's ranking before adjustment is east > central > west,while the adjusted actual energy efficiency and carbon efficiency is central > east > west; natural effect among the three regions shows significant differences,which means that the eastern region is optimal,central region ranking second and western region is the worst,and the harsh natural environment is the main cause of inefficiency in the western region. Since natural factors are difficult to change artificially,the state should properly reduce the indicators when making energy-saving policy for the western region and focuse on energy conservation in eastern and central regions.国家社会科学基金重大项目“雾霾治理与经济发展方式转变机制研究”(项目批准号:14ZDB44;项目主持人:陈诗一);; 新世纪优秀人才支持计划“环境管制、全要素生产率与经济增长”(项目批准号:NCET-110856;项目主持人:王兵);; 国家自然科学基金“中国城市水务行业市场化改革的效率评价及提升路径研究”(项目批准号:71473105;项目主持人:王兵);; 广东省人文社科重点研究基地项目“节能减排约束下广东区域协调发展研究:基于全要素生产率的视角”(项目批准号:2012JDXM_0009;项目主持人:王兵