Constructing an Estimation Framework for China＇s GDP Accounting Errors

关于中国GDP数据质量评估与核算误差估算的研究和实践，至今未能形成公认的方法体系和有形的成果序列。中国GDP核算误差的估算框架的构建，有助于推进该领域研究的体系化。该框架主要包含两层面内容：一是根据核算原理对GDP指标进行全方位分解，尽可能地将误差来源予以细化，并与现有的局部估算研究建立对应关系；二是遵循局部调整、边际改进的技术思路，对GDP（及其误差）各个组成部分的外部估算结果进行衔接和重组，通过序贯逼近，最终建立针对官方数据的较具可信度的替代性数据序列和数据集。该框架满足GDP数据质量评估研究在理论基础可靠性、技术可行性、问题可辨识性以及系统兼容性等方面的要求。可以为该领域研究成果的系统整合以及对于中国统计实践的指导价值的切实发挥提供稳健的方法平台。The paper aims to construct a framework for the estimation of China＇s GDP accounting errors. The framework comprises two principal components. One is about how to decompose the GDP indicator and its data series according to the national accounting principle and how to identify types of error sources in GDP accounting in detail. And the other considers ways to link up existing estimations with each other and recombine them to generate substitution with more reliability for official GDP data sets. With this estimation framework, various research achievements in the field will be integrated, and total research function on official statistical quality management will be realized.国家社科基金项目“中国GDP核算误差、数据修订及其影响机制研究”（12CTJ015