The portfolio method for solving global disequilibrium problem—An analysis on the U.S.A. and the implication for China

基于国际收支货币分析理论的资产组合方法是研究全球失衡问题的一个新视角。这一方法关注一国净外部资产头寸的累积及其可持续性,理解和评估外部失衡的关键是净外部资产变动过程中的价值效应。用该方法对美国外部失衡所做的研究能够得到较为乐观的结论。我国持续贸易顺差并没有带来相应程度的财富累积,我国外部头寸的价值效应为负。我国对贸易顺差进行调整时必须考虑外部头寸价值变动所产生的平衡效应。同时,我国应适当调整外部头寸结构以降低外部财富损失的风险,并积极参与东亚金融合作以抵御风险。It is a new perspective of the portfolio method based on the theory of monetary analysis of international balance to research global disequilibrium problem. The method focuses on the accumulation and consistency of a country's net external asset position. The key to understand and estimate external disequilibrium lies in the value effects during the process of changes in net external assets. Employing such method, you can get optimistic conclusion when you research on the external disequilibrium of the U.S.A.. Continuous trade surplus of China has not led to relevant wealth accumulation. The value effects of its external position should have been negative. As for taking measured to deal with trade surplus, China ought to consider the balance effects brought about by the changes in the value of external position. Meanwhile, China should adjust the structure of external position properly to reduce the risks of losses on external wealth, and be engaged in financial cooperation with East Asian countries to defend risk