Analysis on the Sino-US Trade Balance Based on Kalman Filter

作为在世界经济中扮演重要角色的两个大国,中国和美国间的贸易发展对世界经济有着重要影响。本文在分析了中美贸易动态影响因素的基础上,使用卡尔曼滤波对模型进行了估计,并进一步分析了各种影响因素对中美贸易差额的影响作用。As two countries playing important roles in the world economy, the trade between China and the USA has great influence to the world economy. By analyzing the dynamic factors influencing Sino-US trade balance, this paper estimates the time-varying parameter model through Kalman filter, and analyzes how these factors influenced the Sino-US trade balance